COURSE DESCRIPTION

This course focuses on the premise of business forecasting methodologies used by business managers in today's various industries. This course is focused on presenting basic managerial statistical techniques as well as business forecasting models that are useful for preparing individual business forecasts and long-term planning. Organizations constantly need to make business predictions, whether implicitly or explicitly, about future events that will affect their business and the industry in general. Students will be offered opportunities on how to build business forecasting models, how to produce business forecasts as well as how to evaluate the reliability of the business forecasts generated. Another key focus of the course will be using past organizational information to predict future trends through various types of business forecasting.

COURSE OBJECTIVES

After completing this course, you should be able to:

Assess the essential business forecasting perspective in order to construct a basic business forecasting foundation. (CO1)
Deconstruct the basic forecasting tools so as to provide a framework for building form the basic to the complex. (CO2)
Deconstruct the time series composition with a focus on going beyond strictly forecasting methods so as to better understand the effect of the time series, which provides a stronger framework to understanding it's link to forecasting. (CO3)
Analyze the exponential smoothing methods, especially those related to the Holt's method and the Holt-Winter's method so as to provide yet another perspective from which to build a business forecasting process. (CO4)
Illustrate the key functional process of simple regression with the key focus of analyzing a single explanatory variable. (CO5)
Compose components related to multiple regression methods in which more than one explanatory variable is analyzed. (CO6)
Assess the Box-Jenkins methodology as well as it's utilization impact on more recent ARIMA models and methods. (CO7)
Evaluation of advanced forecasting models related to advanced time series and regression with ARIMA errors and dynamic regression models as well as neural networks. (CO8)
Distinguishing forecasting for the long term which focuses on 3 critical approaches from judgmental forecasting and adjustments, which focuses on the minimization of biases. (CO9)
Analyzing the use of forecasting methods in practice with a focus various models in use and implementing forecasting models with a focus on usage issues as well as advantages and limitations related to the implementation of the models. (CO10)

COURSE MATERIALS

You will need the following materials to complete your coursework. Some course materials may be free, open source, or available from other providers. You can access free or open-source materials by clicking the links provided below or in the module details documents. To purchase course materials, please visit the University's textbook supplier.

Required Textbook

Makridakis, Spyros G.; Wheelwright, Steven C. and Hyndman, Rob J. Forecasting: Methods and Applications. Wiley and Sons (1998).
ISBN 978-0471532330

COURSE STRUCTURE

Business Forecasting is a three-credit online course, consisting of six modules. Modules include an overview, topics, learning objectives, study materials, and activities. Module titles are listed below.

Module 1: The Forecasting Perspective and Tools
Course objectives covered in this module: 1, 2, 6, 8, 10
Module 2: Decomposition Time Series and Smoothing Techniques
Course objectives covered in this module: 1, 2, 5, 8, 9
Module 3: Simple and Multiple Regression Processes
Course objectives covered in this module: 3, 4, 5, 7, 10
Module 4: ARIMA Models and Advanced Forecasting Models
Course objectives covered in this module: 3, 4, 5, 7, 9
Module 5: Forecasting for the Long Term and Forecasting Adjustments
Course objectives covered in this module: 5, 6, 7, 8
Module 6: Forecasting Methods in Practice
Course objectives covered in this module: 6, 7, 9, 10

ASSESSMENT METHODS

For your formal work in the course, you are required to participate in online discussion forums, complete written assignments, participate in a synchronous event, complete a midterm assignment, and complete a final project. See below for details.

Consult the Course Calendar for due dates.

Discussion Forums

You are required to complete six discussion forums. Discussion forums are on a variety of topics associated with the course modules.

Written Assignments

You are required to complete two written assignments. The written assignments are on a variety of topics associated with the course modules.

Synchronous Event

One synchronous event will be held during week 4 (See Course Calendar). During the live event, students will discuss their final project topic providing some context on why the chose this topic including an explanation and justification for their choice. To access the event, click the Collaboration Space link in the Edison Live! section of the course site a few minutes before the designated time. Use the following link for directions and helpful videos about how to use the Edison Live! tool in Moodle. Your mentor will work with the class to propose a time that works best and accommodates the majority.

Midterm Assignment

You are required to complete a midterm assignment. Detail of this assignment can be found in the Midterm section of your course website. See Course Calendar for due date.

Final Project

So as to provide an opportunity for the student to illustrate a comprehensive understanding of business forecasting, they will be required to submit a 10 to 12 page paper on a topic related to business intelligence. Within this paper, the student should clearly identified their topic early in the paper so as to best illustrate this topic throughout their paper. Further, the student should offer a variety of key points so as to support each point and illustrating its intentions as well as its support for the overall topic of their paper.

See the final project area of the course website for more details.

GRADING AND EVALUATION

Your grade in the course will be determined as follows:

Online discussions (6)—20 percent
Written assignments (2)—20 percent
Synchronous event (1)—10 percent
Midterm assignment—20 percent
Final project—30 percent

All activities will receive a numerical grade of 0–100. You will receive a score of 0 for any work not submitted. Your final grade in the course will be a letter grade. Letter grade equivalents for numerical grades are as follows:

A	=	93–100	B	=	83–87
A–	=	90–92	C	=	73–82
B+	=	88–89	F	=	Below 73

To receive credit for the course, you must earn a letter grade of C or higher on the weighted average of all assigned course work (e.g., assignments, discussion postings, projects, etc.). Graduate students must maintain a B average overall to remain in good academic standing.

STRATEGIES FOR SUCCESS

First Steps to Success

To succeed in this course, take the following first steps:

Read carefully the entire Syllabus, making sure that all aspects of the course are clear to you and that you have all the materials required for the course.

Take time to read the entire Online Student Handbook. The Handbook answers many questions about how to proceed through the course, and how to get the most from your educational experience at Thomas Edison State University.

Arrange to take your examination(s) by following the instructions in this Syllabus and the Online Student Handbook.

Familiarize yourself with the learning management systems environment—how to navigate it and what the various course areas contain. If you know what to expect as you navigate the course, you can better pace yourself and complete the work on time.

If you are not familiar with Web-based learning be sure to review the processes for posting responses online and submitting assignments before class begins.

Study Tips

Consider the following study tips for success:

To stay on track throughout the course, begin each week by consulting the Course Calendar. The Calendar provides an overview of the course and indicates due dates for submitting assignments, posting discussions, and scheduling and taking examinations.

Check Announcements regularly for new course information.

ACADEMIC POLICIES

To ensure success in all your academic endeavors and coursework at Thomas Edison State University, familiarize yourself with all administrative and academic policies including those related to academic integrity, course late submissions, course extensions, and grading policies.

For more, see: